2011年11月8日火曜日

double-dip


Illustrated by Kazuhiro Kawakita

 doubleは日本語でも「ダブル」「二重」の意味。dipは「ちょっと浸ける」「下げる」あるいはスプーンなどで「すくう」ことで、動詞・名詞の両方で使う。double-dipは、よい方の意味では「二重にすくう」で、年金をもらいながら他で給料を取ることや、コーンに二重盛りにしたアイスクリームなどを指す。だが、ここでは悪い方の意味。「二重に下げる」でdouble-dip recessionのことだ。日本語で言う景気後退の「二番底」の意味で使われる。カタカナ読みは「ダブル・ディップ」。
 インターネットの経済用語辞典、インベストペディアによると、“A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.”(二番底とは、一時的な景気回復に続いて、再び景気後退がやってくることを指す)と定義。つまり、長期の不況に陥った場合、政府の景気刺激策に反応して景気回復を示す経済指標が表れることがある。だが、それは見かけに過ぎず、実際には何一つ回復していない。ところが、政府は景気へのテコ入れの手を緩めてしまい、再び景気は奈落の底へ―という“worst-case scenario”(最悪のシナリオ)を指す。
 2009年以来、日米ともに二番底の恐れが出ている。“Japan PM Vows to Avoid Double-Dip Recession”(日本の首相、二番底回避を誓う=2010年1月3日付AFP)とか、“US Fears Double-Dip Recession with Rising Job Losses”(米国は失業増加をともなう二番底を恐れる=1月8日付英・ガーディアン)などのニュースが相次いだ。
 ノーベル賞経済学者のポール・クルーグマン氏は、ニューヨーク・タイムズ(2010年1月4日付)に“That 1937 Feeling”(あの1937年の感じ)と題するコラムを掲載。この「二番底」への対応を間違えたならば、“We’ll be repeating the great mistake of 1937, when the Fed and the Roosevelt administration decided that the Great Depression was over.”(われわれは、連邦準備制度理事会=中央銀行とルーズベルト政権が、もう大恐慌は終わったと判断した1937年の大失敗を繰り返すことになるだろう)と警告している。
 さて、二番底に関連して、ウォール街には見せかけだけの景気回復を示す言葉として、“dead cat bounce”(死んだ猫のひと跳ね=カタカナ読みは、デッド・キャット・バウンス)がある。ウイリアム・サファイアの『政治辞典』はその由来について、“If you threw a dead cat off a 50-story building, it might bounce when it hit the sidewalk.”(もし50階建てのビルから死んだ猫を放り投げたら、猫は歩道に当たって跳ねるかもしれない)という株式仲買人の言葉を紹介。“But don’t confuse that bounce with renewed life. It is still a dead cat.”(だが、生き返って跳ねたのと混同してはいけない。それはやはり死んだ猫だ)と、仲買人は釘を刺している。
the Sankei Shimbun(January 25 2010)

PS: We are already in the great double-dip recession!

Euro crisis risks UK double dip, warns PM as global leaders break up amid acrimony and indecision
By James Chapman

Britain risks being tipped back into recession by the eurozone crisis, David Cameron warned last night.

As a summit of global leaders broke up amid acrimony and indecision, the Prime Minister said the ‘world can’t wait’ for a solution. Every day without a deal to rescue the single currency was harming the UK’s economic prospects, he added.

In what was being dubbed the ‘summit for nothing’, G20 leaders assembled in Cannes failed to agree the detail of a eurozone rescue bailout fund. Neither did they secure a boost to the resources of the International Monetary Fund, which is the world’s economic emergency service.

Worried: British PM David Cameron believes Britain could be set to dip back into recession as a result of the eurozone crisis
The only real achievement was the success of Germany and France in bullying Greece into calling off plans for a referendum on a bailout deal.
It was feared that a ‘no’ vote threatened the future of the euro.

Last night, Europe was holding its breath to see whether the Athens administration could survive a vote of no confidence.

Victory: Greek prime minister George Papandreou tonight narrowly won a confidence vote by 153 votes to 144
Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi – privately derided as a ‘buffoon’ by diplomatic sources – turned down a bailout from the IMF, claiming Italy’s debt-ridden economy was booming simply because restaurants were full.

Deluded? Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi rejected a bailout from the EU as he believes the Italian economy is set to flourish

Mr Cameron is furious that Mrs Merkel is refusing to allow the European Central Bank to provide more support instead. As he headed back to the UK last night, the best the Prime Minister could find to say about the G20 meeting was that it was an important ‘staging post’.

Though Chancellor George Osborne had said a ‘number’ would be put on expanded IMF resources at the summit, it failed to do so after the U.S. torpedoed the agreement and insisted it would not commit ‘a cent more’ until Europe had sorted itself out.

Another crisis meeting – this time of G20 finance ministers – is now expected to be held next month.The Daily Mail(November 5 2011)